Memo to third party developers: The Wii install base is officially “there” now. Critical mass achieved. You ignore the system and its portable cousin at your own peril.
Those of your who continue to phone it in with lazy tripe will go away in 2009. Those of you who understand that in this day and age innovative controls and strong art style are going to trump glossy visuals and hand-holding epic stories, both for budgetary reasons and cultural reasons, will cash in something fierce.
Seriously, there are inklings some of you understand how to make a great game for this system.
The first one to go all the way, so to speak, will make millions. And isn’t that the point?
P.S. — Wii Music was back on the overall top ten software sales list in November. I hate being right all the time (though I’m still not buying it).
I think using those games as example of getting it right are valid, but sadly you point to news about them getting sequels. That shows me the publishers "got it" and then went back to their old ways.
@David, as in EA is showing a new face by putting out new ip's . . . and then announces sequels for them. Gee, that is a new face of EA. 😛
Personally, I don't think the install base for the Wii means very much unless the games are tailored for that base. Zak and Wiki didn't sell millions, but Carnival Games did. Sony thought they'd sell a ton of PS3's because of their install base, but they forgot who mattered (the consumer/gamer) and did whatever they wanted and the PS3 flopped (at launch).
If I were a developer I'd rather shoot for a million units of a fps on the 360 than 100,000 units of innovation on the Wii. But that's just the monetary side of the equation, which, sadly, is what publishers (as opposed to developers) are interested in. It's the same thing that goes on with the movie industry. The ideas are out there, but the funding for them isn't.
More sequels here we come!
As a corollary to my above post, I know more people who own a Wii and Wii Fit and no other games than people with Wii's and games (including Wii Fit).
The buzz and marketing are there for more mainstream people to desire a Wii and Wii Fit, but they don't hear about other games. I've been pushing Boom Blox like no other, but they still don't buy it.
@David: Not on purpose. Those were just the first results for the those games that came up in Infendo search!
"If I were a developer I'd rather shoot for a million units of a fps on the 360"
But only big, safe publishers can afford such a strategy. And even then, it's no guarantee that the game will make them any money, even if sells modestly well (millions). Lair, Assassin's Creed are good examples of a "tested" genre, coupled with a big budget and lots of hype, that failed to deliver in the end on the systems they were designed for from the ground up.
Even EA's Dead Space, which is doing fairly well, isn't giving EA the lifeline it was designed to give them.
It's no longer a sure thing to pump one of these games out or even spend a considerable amount of time and effort to make it good because the market is saturated. The table is truly set for some real innovation right now.
This is the first time I have ever seen a platform sell two million units in one month outside of December…ever. VGChartz.com (I tried to find NPD numbers to compare; but I could only find one and that was GBA's 2 million unit surge in December 2004) had only six times since records were kept that a platform sold over 2 million units in a month including a 3.16 million unit record by PS2; but even then they were all done in December. (For the record; half of those were done by GBA; two by PS2 and last year's DS run when DS had the highest one week total in history worldwide at a little over 2 million units.)
Interesting enough Jack; not one of those platforms have sold over 2 million units in two straight months. Wii is posed to be the first and they only need to sell 500,000 units a week in the Americas and history is theirs. It's a easy record actually. I also predict that on Christmas week; both Wii and DS will break PS2's one week Americas record for most units sold. Both over one million units. The record is a little over 960,000 units.
You were right…Wii Music for the win. I lost the bet and now must buy a copy and enjoy it.
"It's no longer a sure thing to pump one of these games out or even spend a considerable amount of time and effort to make it good because the market is saturated. The table is truly set for some real innovation right now."
I don't know, the 7 million units Assassin's Creed sold over the half a million Zack & Wiki sold shows that perhaps it is more of a sure thing. (Lair, btw, was broken.) Dead Space . . . well, I don't know why more people aren't buying it.
Anyway, I 100% agree that the market is oversaturated. Completely. I just don't think that innovation equates to sales because rehashing still generates sales (see GTA IV, Madden vs. Mirror's Edge).
Ummmm good times. What a wonderful world. Now put your hands up for Mother 3.
"As a corollary to my above post, I know more people who own a Wii and Wii Fit and no other games than people with Wii's and games (including Wii Fit)."
I knew a ton of people in the NES days that just owned the pack in game. Same goes with the original Gameboy, Super NES, SEGA, pretty much the older systems that included a pack in game. I think since the past few generations of no pack in game, people have gotten used to people automatically going out and buying games.
I'm not talking about gamers, I'm talking about the people who will only buy a game or two during the consoles life. There are plenty of them out there.
"I don't know, the 7 million units Assassin's Creed sold over the half a million Zack & Wiki sold shows that perhaps it is more of a sure thing. (Lair, btw, was broken.)"
But it's not, and that's an unfair comparison. Apple and oranges, really, if we're talking development budgets and the overall goal for each game. Like EA with Boom Blox, I imagine Capcom is secretly content with how Zack and Wiki performed. It made its investment back in the first few months, and now any additional sales, say for the holiday, are gravy. Just like my evergreen Wii title of the year, Boom Blox.
As for Lair… that a game so grandiose and hyped be shipped "broken" (actually, it was just a terrible game all around, controls be damned) is yet another symptom of an industry that can't seem to sack up to the fact that making enjoyable, "let your hair down" games is a lucrative and respectful business, and goes back to my original point.
Which is, instead of making games, developers (especially American ones) seem content with the practice of continuously pumping out "interactive movies" that ultimately get played once and then dumped in the used bin a GameStop (they also have a tendency, because of their huge scale, multiple plot lines, and immense number of variables, to be shipped buggy or unplayable, as was the case with Lair).
Then, as if their $60 half-finished games weren't enough of an insult to we consumers, these developers complain about not getting a cut of used game sales, when what they need is to do is get over themselves and start designing games with legs that people will play for the next 20 years. But they don't, and games like Mario Kart Wii remain entrenched in the top 10 for months on end. Where the heck is MGS4 these days? Not making back that immense Hollywood development budget, that's for sure, because there's not a big enough audience to do it.
Also, check the numbers. IIRC, GTAIV and Madden both under-performed, if we're talking about a comparison to previous generations.
PS– I write this with the disclosure that I'm thoroughly enjoying an Xbox 360 title right now: Left 4 Dead. Simple, four level, wickedly effective co-op fun, and nigh a story or convoluted character development in sight. Other developers should take note.
With this latest round of sales and with what I think we will see over the course of December, I think the Wii will finally push past the 50 percent market share if it hasn't already. If you make a game that ignores literally HALF of the market, you're taking a pretty big risk.
I am with jack as usual.
Wii Music is proving to be as evergreen as all of nintendos titles, rising up for the holidays to show that people do want it.
I expect it to sell a million sometime next year, with little to no price drop. Big money.
Zack and Wiki didnt sell great because they made it look kiddie while setting it up as a very difficult game.
It really looked childish and you think it would sell well? Tell me on what system a game like that sells well?
Just like madden 09s goofy mascot cover. Thats not the wii audience.
The wii owner who want madden is the same one that would buy it on any system. They want to play a football game, not playground football.
What sales do prove is that you shouldnt cater your game to the system, because the system has all kinds of users.
Carnival games sold well because it had alot of sports in it that gave buyers the feeling they were getting alot of game for their buck. I dont think it was even full price at launch in the UK at least. But thats only one of the wiis audiences.
It has the action audience who bought resident evil series and all those shooters from sega.
Honestly, not much else has come out from 3rd parties to compare to the big budget fps titles on the other systems. Like whats coming out this holiday? Nothing. Its stupid of them. Everytime they try to cater a game to a supposed audience it fails, while traditional gaming on the wii does well and definitely profits.
"Apple and oranges, really, if we're talking development budgets and the overall goal for each game."
To be honest, I think we may be talking about slightly different things and now that I've been up for a few more hours in the day, I'll concede that I may have been talking more about non-Wii games than Wii games. I'll have to think on that some more.
The thing I love about Left 4 Dead is that Valve is still working with their Source engine which is ancient as all hell (relatively). Their bottom line must look really nice since they are getting the most out of what they've got to work with, which developed at the turn of the millennium.
I'll also agree that Madden is under performing when compared to last gen., but GTA IV's sales have already surpassed GTA's sales. Besides, they still sell. It isn't like they've flopped (especially considering Madden probably only takes $10 to develop a new one . . . "Roster updated yet? Oh good, we're done!"). Keep in mind that sales will only continue to grow as hardware sells, so Madden will probably do better two years down the road than at hardware's launch (especially considering all those 360 Arcades being sold this year, but anyway).
Forget all this, all your post was saying was to develop real games and to stop giving us shovelware and half finished games. I certainly can't take umbrage with that. 😛
"The thing I love about Left 4 Dead is that Valve is still working with their Source engine which is ancient as all hell (relatively). Their bottom line must look really nice since they are getting the most out of what they've got to work with, which developed at the turn of the millennium."
I wish more developers thought like this. Unfortunately, most of them have been bitten by the bigger, faster, stronger, more expensive bug. Just because the technology is there doesn't mean the consumers are. It's not necessarily a male, testosterone thing either. Jade Raymond, for example, is as guilty as any of them.
This is also why people who bemoan a return to 8-bit graphics and sound (Mega Men 9) are idiots. If a game is fun, it's fun.
"Those of you who understand that in this day and age innovative controls and strong art style are going to trump glossy visuals and hand-holding epic stories, both for budgetary reasons and cultural reasons, will cash in something fierce."
If we don't all lose our jobs and the government doesn't screw up this country any further, we just might be able to afford all of that cashing in.
My political gripes aside, I can only hope that developers start giving their full dedication to their Wii projects.
well put jack. i whole heartedly agree with you on this issue. developers take note.
hehe- the perrenial paradox returns! if developers are profit maximizing, they will develop solid games for the largest install base. the wii has the largest install base. But they rarely come through!
I might suggest several things wrong with this. First, developers are not only profit maximizing. Many claim to want to do more than the Wii can handle. Second, not all install bases are the same, so what sells (and pass for solid games) on the 360 may simply not fly on the wii (a point elucidated and by the ironical observation/complaint that many studios put their best teams on non-wii systems only to pump out generic games you say you don't want). In fact, traditionally solid games may be a hard sell to some install bases, who buy with a different set of criteria in mind. Third, the entire logic may simply be flawed per the developer's perspective- they indeed may have aligned their resources in the most efficient manner they believe possible. Though I would suspect that my first point is more dominant; that many developers pick titles they want to make and how they want to make them over where the most cash is.
I agree Jack- it is fun to be right. Though my reason for predicting that wiimusic would sell like hotcakes was that it is largely a casual/kiddie oriented title with the Nintendo brand on it and that the broader wii market would welcome another easy to play "game" where they get to waive their arms. i know it's still anathema to say, (especially on your posts, i'm sure!), but this is just evidence to me that the wii demographic loves the casual gaming (normally I'd say they are casual gamers, but that's less the point here, since plenty of casual gamers buy hardcore titles).
@Jack
Megaman 9 is not the right direction, it's a horrible excuse for an official entry in the mega man franchise. Games like space invader extreme on the other hand, is what developers supposed to do with their aging franchise. It is a complete game right out of the box, with almost perfect execution and presentation. And it's made for true gamers. Suck on that megaman 9 lovers. Loving all the useless DLCs? You make me sick. Freaking pretenders.
@RoyalRook: I didn't buy any DLC, and yet I was able to complete AND enjoy Mega Man 9! How did I do this?! Is my copy broken?
PS — Is a true gamer like the antithesis of a false gamer or something?
Cheers,
Jack
False Gamer
paul, your logic is very illogical. you don't make any sense. you said:
'If I were a developer I'd rather shoot for a million units of a fps on the 360 than 100,000 units of innovation on the Wii.'
there's so many fps games on 360, that you would really have to do something special to differentiate your game from the others. the fps is the most over represented genre on the 360, which probably accounts for 70% of the quality games on that system. so i don't see your logic there. as for quality first person shooters on wii, i can count them on one hand. also, by implement the wiimote and nunchuk, you are in a way differentiating your game from all fps with a unique control system. so you stand corrected. you fail to mention that the wii user base is starved for the under represented genre. most people that own a wii are gamers, first and foremost. you really think the wii could have reached this critical mass with just grandmothers? seriously you need to base your thinking in reality, and what is really going on in the world. if you want to make shi** loads of money i would have said :
If I were a developer I'd rather be one of the first to shoot for a million units of a fps on the Wii than attempt 100,000 units of innovation on the 360.
btw, as far as 3rd party devs, high voltage will get there first. they're going to reap the benefits, and as it happened many other times before, we're going to see all those 3rd parties come out of the woodwork. all they needed to see was a precedent, and then come the wave of imitators attempting to cash in.
paul, your way of thinking is why 3rd party devs still don't get the wii. they think exactly like you. and its exactly why they still fail at this point, with few exceptions, to make consistent money on the wii. i think at some point in 2009, we can officially claim that 3rd party devs get the wii. looking at the software lineup, it appears more effort has been put in by devs since it now looks like the wii is winner this generation. a note about zack and wiki. it was a great effort by capcom, but unfortunately a marketing nightmare. the game is a very difficult game. a great, but difficult game. the graphics skewed very young. so who was going to buy this game? initially, the parents for the younger kids because it appeared to be for them. however after playing it, and word of mouth spread, this game is way too difficult for them. so mature and intelligent gamers that aren't turned off by the cartoon graphics are the ones that bought it, and there weren't that many of them it appears.
Did anybody read what else I wrote . . . ?
"But that's just the monetary side of the equation, which, sadly, is what publishers (as opposed to developers) are interested in. It's the same thing that goes on with the movie industry. The ideas are out there, but the funding for them isn't.
More sequels here we come!"
My point is that innovation doesn't mean squat. Money drives all things and so something has to be seen as marketable and sell able for a publisher to be interested. And so far on the Wii, Nintendo games sell and everything else tends to be a bit more of a shot in the dark than something on the 360. Why? Because they know how to market for the 360.
Perhaps Z&W is not a great example since the point and click adventure certainly isn't the hottest genre around (and for the record, I love the game). But instead I put forth No More Heroes and Elebits. both involve shooting and people didn't flock to them. Hell, Call of Duty: World at War hasn't sold very well either. I just don't see the Wii install base clamoring for fps. The Conduit is probably not going to sell well and it has nothing to do with the game itself. Innovation's been done on the Wii, but if Nintendo's name isn't attached it has a very steep uphill climb if it doesn't offer a bazillion minigames.
As Jack said, "Those of you who understand that in this day and age innovative controls and strong art style are going to trump glossy visuals and hand-holding epic stories, both for budgetary reasons and cultural reasons, will cash in something fierce."
I see the innovation on the system, but I don't see the sales. How'd Dewy's Adventure sell? Perhaps it isn't a perfect game, but it's a game that was designed specifically for the Wii control scheme. de Blob is doing fairly well, but isn't lighting the world on fire.
I'm not arguing that real gamers don't own Wii's, but, as I said before, I actually know more people who own Wii's and aren't "gamers" than "real" gamers with Wii's.
This comment thread has gotten all out of control, so I'm going to move on now. Nice chatting with you chaps. Now go buy MLB Power Pros.
The funny thing is Innovation does not mean any thing. I don't play because of innovation I play because of a few simple things here and there.
Great art
Great game play
Skill based gaming that does not rely on online players.
Great art is broken due to the need to over detail the characters and sets of these new games. Some where in the design things just get muddy or boring.
Great game play is almost none existent right now. I don't see my self looking back on this gen feeling like I missed at thing if I stopped playing games today.
What happened to great level design and great game play that did not rely on a random physic engine?
Another thing is most of these games are turning into a kill box with guns… The cover has no fluidity to it and creative skill is not rewarded and speed , reaction is no longer key.
Online play is great for some games but it has made developers uncreative. Developers no longer test a gamer's wits… The cool thing about the older games is the fact that even with a guide the games where still hard and challenging.
I don't mind a game for the hardcore collectors that is an instruction based game.
Yet I miss those games that are made for the real hardcore… The ones with style that rewarded you with a challenge.
Saddly the only game I remember that was like this was the Last F-zero… Of course there are more but these new gamers must be inducted into the arcade hardcore…. which I think is a more fitting name for the true hardcore gamers.
Does anybody know why Call of Duty: WaW didn't sell well on Wii? It got good reviews everywhere, and almost everyone agrees the controls are better than on the other consoles. Yet, the Wii version didn't show up in NPD top 20, while x360 and ps3 versions got 2nd and 6th spots.
People that say FPS games don't sell on Wii are right, or what?
Wow, what a debate in here.
I would have to say that people have made some great points (Jack, Paul, AC to name a few) and other off their rocker (RoyalRock for your MM9 comments, you're insane).
Now back on the topic at hand. I do think developers should recognize how many Wiis are out there, especially since everyone who I know who has a Wii has at least 10 games for the system. They are not all core games, some are friends of my fiance who are just plain old casual gamers. So people are buying other games, not just Wii Play and Wii Fit.
You cannot tell me out of the 2 million people that bought a Wii in November all only wanted Wii Fit. Not possible.
The bigger problem is the economy. People can maybe afford one game every two months. MAYBE. So developers need to ADVERTISE their games. I rarely see Wii ads not counting games like Rock Band or COD where it's on all systems. Wii exclusives need commercials. Until they advertise, not going to help sales.
Wii will sell over 2.5 million more units in December (at least), so that's nearly 5 million more of install base developers have to work with, not to mention 1/3 the cost it takes to make a Wii game versus 360/PS3. Just in terms of economy, it makes sense to make some Wii titles of quality.
@ XCWarrior
W@W was advertised…
"Those of you who understand that in this day and age innovative controls and strong art style are going to trump glossy visuals and hand-holding epic stories, both for budgetary reasons and cultural reasons, will cash in something fierce."
This type of thinking really irritates me when it comes to the Wii. Why is it that people think that there isn't room for both types of game on the console? I enjoy playing deBlob, Wii Sports & Wii Play just as much as I enjoy playing Twilight Princess, No More Heroes & Okami.
Would you really say that Hollywood should stop making big blockbuster movies and concentrate on the comedies because they're more fun? No you wouldn't, or at least I hope you wouldn't, so why should it be the same for videogames?
The way I see it, the Wii's install base is large enough so that you can capitalise on making a (good) casual or hardcore game.
With reference to WaW, the reason I didn't buy it – and I love me some FPS – is because I already have MOH: Heroes 2 and am, like most people, fed up of WW2 games. I will however, be buying The Conduit on launch day, because it looks like a fresh, expansive FPS built from the ground up for the Wii.
Bring on the innovative casual AND hardcore games!