Is the Wii phenomenon finally over?

Gaming Age Forum-goer Entrement started an interesting discussion yesterday, in regards to Nintendo Wii becoming cold product. “This is not a qualitative analysis, or whether you like the Wii or Nintendo games,” he writes. “But the future doesn’t look too bright,” he says, for the following reasons:

The 3DS: Nintendo is not a big company. They have small, dedicated internal teams. With the 3DS push, could one say that many of the key Nintendo teams–the Zelda Team, after finishing SS and EAD Tokyo, who can be working on anything, with Miyamoto hinting on 3D Mario on the 3DS, could Nintendo’s dev teams already moving onto the 3DS.

The Wi___ line: The Wii____ line has been gangbusters for Nintendo. With the exception of WiiMusic, they sold millions worldwide, however, the most recent–Wii Party didn’t even chart on NPD. I hear it did respectably in Japan and I’m not aware of Europe’s reception. But such a big drop off in a such a tent-pole line seems troubling for Nintendo.

Competing mindshare from Move and Kinect: Now that the HD twins have some form of motion control, Sony and MS have essentially created a diversion for prospective, new customers. Would a gaming layperson, who has no idea about NPD, gaming sites, etc, easily be swayed away from a potential Wii purchase for a 360 with Kinect or a PS3, with additional BR functionality?

Add the fact that Wii has trailed Xbox 360 in sales for five consecutive months, not to mention being beat by PS3 sales for only the second time last month, and you can see how quickly Nintendo has dropped from first place, unlike steady PS2 sales of last generation.

Still, “even if sales drop to hell,” concludes Entrement, “Nintendo’s strategy was brilliant. They became relevant again, avoiding obscurity that could have easily happened after the Gamecube. Furthermore, they’ve shown everyone that a new market exists and can be catered to with great results. And they’ve positioned themselves nicely for next generation.”

What do you think, Infendo Nation?