I asked around yesterday in a speculative report for G4. Here’s what my quotables had to say:
A lot of people wonder what the new console might mean for not only console gaming, but for Nintendo in general. Can the company win the “console war” for a second consecutive cycle in the wake of Wii, like it did post-NES with the Super Nintendo?
Ormond says no. “I think Nintendo is too prideful to see the real competition, and it isn’t named Microsoft or Sony,” he says, predicting that an updated and aggressively-priced Apple TV could obviate the modern console as we know it.
Pachter says yes, at least for a little while. “Of course they’ll lead. Microsoft and Sony won’t release new consoles until a couple of years after, so Nintendo will have a free pass.”Â
Steinberg says it depends. “If the company can get their third-party support, online connectivity, and downlodable content in order ’ all of which were lacking on Wii ’ then Nintendo is a strong contender for another first-place finish.”
Cassidy sees any short-changing of Nintendo as a failure to recognize the company’s 120 year legacy. “Nintendo still has what it takes to surprise and dominate the industry,” he maintains. “The Wii may not be everyone’s go-to platform for core gaming, but there are millions and millions of owners out there that have gotten a lot of fun from the platform. To dismiss Nintendo as incapable of delivering that sort of experience once again would be silly.”
What do you think? What percentage would you give Nintendo to lead next-generation console gaming?
I think they have a decent charge of winning a second generation in a row. They did it with the SNES after the NES, and with the Wii basically using a strategy similar to the NES, Project Cafe might win using a strategy like that of the SNES.
i agree with assidy in your "quotables" section. It would be foolish to eliminate Nintendo altogether. They are such a power house and have prominant chracters and a long history that shant be forgotten.
However i do see grave danger. Sony and Microsoft will release newwer consoles after the next gen Nintendo and undoubtedly they will be more powerful then that console. Like the Wii and this gen now, it is less powerful and setting the speculative standard as equal to the current consoles or slightly more powerful may see a lasting cycle that could be vicious in which nintendo will always be last in power and performance.
Another danger i percieve is that of Apple. The apple fanboys are even more aggressive and shrouded than that of Nintendo. They will always percieve apple products as the best there is and will consistently buy the products. The social marketing of this is sheer genius and encourages those less experienced in Apple to buy. Take for example the battle of the iPad and other tablets. whilst the ipad's hardware is simply beautiful i pose the argument that some of the software features on other tablets are better. However the unaware or un-informed consumer will go for the "more well known brand name". I think it is a dangerous time here because of the burgeoning areas of the "app shop" and gaming with telecommunications. It makes all the more accessible to the general public.
My last danger i can percieve is that of gimmicks. I own a 3DS. I love my 3ds for certain reasons and despise it for others. However i feel that it is little more than a DS wrapped in a more powerful body with some hidden tricks that can draw one in (such as the soon coming e-shop and the augmented reality). The gimmick here was the 3D. This is now becomming an issue with other companies releasing glassesless 3D technology, this will put Nintendo on the back foot and they will have to fight to keep it alive by brining great titles and that "one killer app" we have all been dreaming of. This ties in also with the new "project cafe". What will they do? not too sure right now but i can gurantee from what i have heard that there will be a gimmick. Whether it be the feedback touchscreen or the use of the console game in a cafe via the handheld device or some other gimmick, there will be one present. I feel that no gimmick will be as powerful as that of the Wii's motion controls and the revolution that it started. For this reason, and the fact that Sony and Microsoft focus somewhat more on core gaming, that Nintendo could luck out on this next console war.
As for me, i fully intend to buy the next console and enjoy the year or so of stress-free consumerism in between sony and microsoft's new launches.
@Ross says : "Another danger i percieve is that of Apple. "
I agree. Something like Apple, Google, Roku, Steam, Onlive, Netflix and Facebook are a threat to gaming consoles. I think of a scenario where Steam and Netflix team up and start providing a streaming or downloadable game service to devices like Apples iPad and Google Android devices or set-top boxes. Then you would have bluetooth game controllers and an HDMI connection to the flat screen, and all of sudden it is a gaming console too!
the wii install base will need a compelling reason to upgrade. we know this isn't automatic, after nintendo sounded surprised when the DS base did not automatically upgrade.
i haven't heard anything about the console yet that is a compelling reason in my eyes. the nintendo diehards and the kids demographic will likely follow nintendo regardless. but the casual gaming wii owners i know are still happy with their wiis. much depends on the launch price.
This is not a NES -> SNES scenario at all.
Many of the people who bought a Wii are kind 'over' gaming in general. They had Wii Play, and then they didn't get anything else. They're not going to upgrade.
Many of the people who bought a Wii are butthurt over….well, the social stigma the Wii carries. Because their peers think the Wii is crap, they moved away from Nintendo (sooo not advisable), and probably won't be upgrading.
Pachter is an idiot who doesn't understand the question, but I would say no. If they try to target the 'mom & grandma demographic', many fans won't upgrade. If they go the 'hardcore' (for lack of a better term) route, the grandmas won't upgrade. Not to mention how most of the newer titles will be ports from the HD consoles, begging the question of….'why upgrade?'
Frankly, I don't care. The GameCube was in last place (erm…save for the Dreamcast…which is also a great example), and yet we got so many incredible games, in part because of it. Nintendo won't go under just because they won't be #1 in hardware sales. They'll pump out the software to make their console #1 in quality. It's what they do.
Nintendo is unique. They have a stable of well-liked characters and a family-friendly identity that transcends hardware specs. And they have a knack for pulling rabbits out of their hats and surprising everyone with brilliant ideas.
Nintendo isn't about hardware, it's about content. If Wii Sports had been a charmless, dull experience, Wii would have flopped. The gaming market is changing, and Nintendo's strong franchises give them a solid home base that can adapt to any scenario.
I give them an 80% chance of dominating the consoles again, but only if the new box is reasonably priced, gives casual players a fun, easy-to-understand reason to upgrade, and gives gamers a steady flow of awesome core titles. In today's market, those first two points are going to be critical. It'll be hard to top the simple brilliance of "imagine bowling with your TV remote," but Nintendo can do it.
Poligonal graphics have definitively reached a point of diminishing returns with the 360 and PS3, and modern PC games barely look better than five year old console tech. So Cafe games, although they will run on a hardware 50% to 100 % more powerful tan a PS3 will only look barely better than current 360-PS3 games. So don't worry about the new consoles from Sony or Microsoft that will come in three or four years: at best the games will look only marginaly better. And the cost of developing PS3 style graphics are already bancrupting game developers, so don't expect much better graphics.
It's really hard to say. Nowadays people except more things out their consoles now, and if Nintendo can meet that and also offer not only their games but also AAA 3rd party ones, then they surely have an hit on their hands.
Kinda hard to make prediction without knowing the details of the system. I would say it all depends on the hook of the system. If you can get the 'hardcore' and 'casual' customers, and the 'hardcore' devs I'd say N has a good shot.
I agree the apple iPad might be a threat. There's so many possibilities with what they could do with that. I wouldn't underestimate it.
I'd give it a 50-50%…
Listen to comments even from Nintendo fans about what they would like to see on the new console, and it all revolves around recycled themes and game sequels, almost no one asks for a new IP. That means that customers for the new console will be reduced to the true fans of 1st party titles that involve a new coat of paint on old games, or a sequel.
The only way I see a new Nintendo console gaining momentum is if a 3rd party developer known as a hardcore favorite (Bungie, Bioware, etc.) blew people's minds at E3 by announcing a Nintendo exclusive on said new console.
Frankly, I cannot imagine a hardware gimmick that would make everyone get interested again in a new console (3D, touchpad controller, motion detection, vitality sensor, etc.), no matter from which developer, and the new Nintendo console seems to be only trying to catch up with what Sony and Microsoft owners already have.
Yes it can. The Apple TV, iPhone and apple product nonsense is a no go and pure and utter "analyst" BS. Nintendo consoles are the only place you can get Nintendo franchises and those are enough for most.
70%-90%.
I don't know what their new console is(n't), so….
What? I'm baffled some of guys only talk crap about nintendo. I sense such a great deal of skepticism. Really i don't understand why most of you talk Nintendo stuff just to slam it. I don't want Nintendo to copy what others are doing just to be "hardcore". I think nintendo is unique and true innovators. Also, when nintendo innovates with something new it's instantly labeled "gimmick" whereas whatever microsoft or sony do it's cool. Kinect and move are not gimmick, they´re copies of the wii mote and the market Nintendo went after this past generation.
I'd like to support Gannon when he's talking about current power and graphics. Most of you think that whatever nintendo releases Microsoft and Sony will kill it by the time they release their new systems one or two years after the project cafe. Basically you think the're gonna be as twice as powerful. But current technology it's like the difference between ps2 and xbox 1. There's no such leap in technology as the one that was between ps2 and ps3. So i wouldn't get my hopes so high. Besides, the newswet graphics cards are 700 $ approximately. So are you willing to pay that amount of money?
I really think Nintendo it's gonna marry finally Power and innovation together. Nintendo has had it's up and downs. But even if so i've never lost faith and i know when they unveil the console, control and gameplya footage i'm gonna have a huge smile on my face. So i think Nintendo stands a chance, ABSOLUTELY!
Those who think Nintendo's own franchises are enough to keep them on top should consider that Nintendo had some of its best games to date on the N64 and Gamecube and still failed to lead. It didn't matter that they were in the black years before Sony and Microsoft were; they were still in second or third place and analysts were calling for them to become a Sega/Atari-esque software house right up until the Wii got its first playable showing.
It has to be Nintendo's own franchises AND something that gets people who don't like video games to buy video games. In 1985 it was R.O.B., and then people got hooked on the games. In 2006 it was the Wiimote which was as far from the dual-stick, 18-button monstrosities as you can get, and…. well, actually, a lot of people who bought it for that reason didn't buy more than 2 or 3 games, but it was still enough to put Nintendo on top.
Now they know they need to make something that not only sucks in both fratboys and Grandma, but keeps Grandma buying games rather than just playing the same 1 or 2 over and over again. If the touchscreen controller is real, I'm envisioning something that falls between iPhone games and the Touchmaster things you find in bars, maybe with a social aspect if they can figure out how to make their console connect to the Internet without the friction that's kept the Wii, DS and so far 3DS from doing it right.
It's going to be an uphill battle for them, but selling people on the DS and Wii was too.
@raindog469: The Wii has made most 3rd party developers a lot of money so why would they skip over Project Cafe? Nintendo franchises is WHY I buy their portables and consoles. The exclusive 3rd party games are a bonus.
Yes we can!
Devor3–
Don't worry: No one thinks Kinect and Move are cool.
Raindog469–
I was just out of college when NES hit (Yeah, I'm old). Almost nobody bought the full R.O.B. bundle. It got people's attention, but most folks bought the cheaper System & Super Mario set. You make some great points, though.
If apple were to release some sort of apple tv with controllers and apps for download, there would be only apple if it's priced low enough