Many analysts and video gamers believe that Playstation 3 sales will be slow for a year or two, but everyone will inevitably buy one. Thus, Sony will again dominate. However, pubishers and developers are not that patient, nor am I convinced conumers are either. Nintendo has promised 6 million consoles shipped by around March 2007. Meanwhile, Sony is currently expected to ship just 1/4 of that number and very few consoles will be available for launch, especially in Japan. This indicates to me three things:
Nintendo and Microsoft will see more third party support while Sony will lose it. Publishers and developers make money by selling games, but they need an audience to sell games too. The PS3 will not have a significant userbase until a year from now, at which point both the Xbox 360 and Wii will have three or four times the installed userbase of the PS3. With the broad and worldwide appeal of the Nintendo Wii, many publishers who traditionally have developed for Sony consoles will produce games for the Wii because of financial reasons.
Nintendo will dominate Japan. Especially if Dragon Quest finds a home on Wii. With a mere 100 000 PS3 consoles available for launch, Sony has handed Japan over to Nintendo. How can Japanese gamers resist an inexpensive console with Nintendo’s Virtual Console and broad support from many Japanese developers? They cannot.
Two years from now, many gamers will not buy the PS3. Even with a price drop. Sony is not in the financial shape to heavily subsidize the console to make it more affordable. By the time the price and supply make it available on a mainstream scale, the Xbox 360 and Wii will both have a large library of games and attractive prices, making them the logical consoles to purchase. The PS3 will have a place in the gaming industry, but it will not dominate this generation.
Well, I disagree with you on two things. One of them being that Nintendo will dominate Japan. Before you jump on me, I disagree with this because you say will. Right now, I think Nintendo already dominates Japan, especially with the DS and all.Also, I think that if the PS3 price were to drop, I do think gamers would pick up the system. I know I didn't buy my PS2 until last year when the price dropped and there was a thinner PS2 available. I think you need to change your wording to maybe consumers will not buy the PS3. Gamers will, I'm sure of it, but Joe Schmoe consumer will go for the cheaper system with a larger library of games. The PS3 will have exclusive games that gamers will want and a significant price drop will make gamers, not general consumers, buy the system.
I respectfully disagree with theJON :-)I think this generation is different than that of the PS2, for all the obvious reasons and more: Sony has put everything into one basket this time around. Everything from the attitude to their marketing to their physical system specs says that this is the generation where they wanted to utterly eradicate everyone else and remake gaming in their image. Fodder for this conclusion includes Blu-Ray. If that fails, then Sony is out of luck; their system will literally be almost unbuyable if a consumer wants to watch movies, etc. A price drop can't fix broken, regardless if it was a 10% drop or a 50% one. None of that existed with the PS1 or PS2. To their credit they took a gamble. It was an ill-advised, poorly thought out gamble, but you don't win in this biz without taking risks. They simply don't offer anything new to the consumer, in my opinion. 360 is established, it's "hardcore." Wii is betting on fun and innovation and graphics that I think poeple will be pleasantly surprised with as well as [secrets still to be named later]. Where does the PS3 fit in, especially with a $600 price tag plus games, HD components and higher power consumption?
Several developers have said that the PS3 isnt that much more powerful than the 360, and if it is, then its a right pain in the arse to get the power out of it. Most people I know who were devout PS2 owners have stepped up to the 360 plate already – I think the lads who used to play playstation now play X360.£150 for a Wii, £250ish for an X360 (or get one free with a mobile phone) or £450 for a PS3, mmm I wonder which ones will lead the UK markket then.It's an easy conclusion, BluRay will be dead in the water, HDDVD will be massive by this time next year and no one will own a PS3 because everything it has to offer is already available on Xbox
HD DVD and Blu Ray my ass, the average consumer already has a large collection of DVDs and an SDTV set. I don't see either disc format doing all that well for at least a few years, nevermind by 2007, especially at the prices of HD movies.The exlcusives will def exist in Japan (360 what?), but every day more PS3 titles are platform hopping. And who knows, maybe the likes of Blue Dragon will actually drive sales in Japan.Regarding Sony not being able to take a hit on consoles. keep in mind that Sony is betting the company on Blu Ray, not PS#. It's just that Blu Ray is betting on the PS3 itself for attention and a user base. Still, Sony will make money of every blu ray disc and player sold, be it a PS3 game/system or otherwise. They will eventually have to lower their price to stay competitive, which is what business is all about.
Yeah, so ryro is right about HD-DVD and Blu Ray. It's really a non-issue, so you can't say "their system will be literally almost unbuyable if a consumer wants to watch movies." It can play DVDs, right? Ok, end of discussion.People seem to forget just how massive of a phenomenon the Playstation/PS2 have been. Sony isn't going anywhere; I suspect (thankfully) that Nintendo will be MUCH more competitive in Japan this time around, and hopefully here stateside. If anything, we'll see a largely even race worldwide (save Japan, whose consumers have wisely opted out of purchasing the 360).Someone said that "PS3 doesn't offer anything new." But Microsoft's new console does? Don't fool yourself – MS and Sony are travelling down very similar paths, and it will prove even more costly for Microsoft than it has thus far.
I'm going to disagree with michael.I think he's right about HD-DVD and BluRay, I don't think the average consumer cares. I also don't think Sony is going to go out of business if they don't have the huge dominance like they did last generation. Lets remember that the X-Box has yet to make money and I'm sure Sony has at least some money in the bank.What I do disagree with is that I believe Microsoft is offering something new: online play. Granted you have to pay for it, but I'd gladly pay $50/year on any system to have the level of online experience Xbox offers. Having a unique gamertag across all games is just great. Being able to message your friends as long as their system is on is a great feature too.Frankly, I am scared by Nintendo's offering. Friend codes? Yuck. So everytime I want to play a new game with my friends I have to have them send me an arbitrary sequence of numbers and letters. I would imagine this also means that I can't play as myself on another system since the friend code is tied to the disk/system combo.I think this is the 360's feature which is pushing console gaming forward. The PS3 on the other hand… it seems like it is trying to do both the controller and the online system and it seems likely that both will turn out poorly.
By the time the PS3 gets off its feet, third parties will have largely abandoned the system. The lone saving grace is that Final Fantasy 13 will be big in Japan and sell the system. It will still sell alright, but not much more than 20 million worldwide, if that. And why buy a PS3 when the Wii has a far better library of games, just like the majority of people bought a PS2 for its vast library of games.TheJON, you are right about the DS in Japan, but the PS2 dominated just as much as the DS is now, with the Gamecube selling decent but not great by any stretch of the imagination.
Xbox360 is what the name tells you, an xbox that gave a complete turn and continues to walk the same road, It is the same thing plus Hd graphics running at 30fps with XBL medals or rewards. Nintendo is truly innovating with their system but also the main problem is attracting the western crowd. Japanese and most eurpoeans will probably be all over the system, but americans are just understanding the concept of "less graphics with more gameplay" which Sony works to the bone. Look at the PSP, it sells pretty good for a console with no software to use it. I'm sure homebrew has a LOT to do with it, but Sony doesn't even try! they are plotting against homebrewers everytime they remember to update the firmware and try to block everything every month. why?The BIG problem I see with the PSP and the PS3 is that they are still trying for that media center system. The PSP can do:-music: Atrac first year & mp3 in second year.-video: runs a modified popular codec with no way easy converter and even after 2 years isn't easy for a casual consumer to use; also used a propietary format to run movies but were as expensive and even more expensive than regular dvd with no bonus features.-games: some popular ips with so-so games.The PSP had as rivals the IPOD, The Gameboy Advance, The DS, Portable DVD Players (the most populars in hundreds of gadgets). It did half-of-everything so it lost against everyone, but Sony likes to keep their formats for years after the become obsolete so the thing is still running with major losses (unlike Nokia who quickly killed the failed Ngage and losses were barely noticiable).The Ps3 can do:-music: a home center for music with a online store to buy Sony Label Songs (at the moment)-video: download Tv shows to hard disk with a online store to buy them. A Revolutionary large capacity HD content media format for movies.-games: popular franchises and best sellers will get their sequels in HD gaming generation.So the competition for the Ps3 will be Apple, Microsoft, TIVO, Nintendo, the HDDVD society, the DVD and the internet. Not counting every independent online store that are selling content today, making every consumer buy their new format, making video games, etc, etc. Whoops I forgot the expensive tag the added to their system… it will be an uphill battle, but if they focus on something rather than try to grab everything for everyone they might get the rewards…
I totally agree with this statement/article!! Well written!!! I own a PS2, several PS1, X-Box and Nintendo's consoles in case you were wondering.
Yoda says: The future hard to see it is.For the first time I'm really concerned that Sony might have dropped the ball… and might not recover from it.But let's see Wii first and decide after that… shall we?