Revolution in Spring?

Nintendo’s recently released 6-month financial report contained a Revolution hint that seems to have gone over almost everyone’s heads. When they cited Revolution development as a cause for the low profits, they also mentioned that they were targeting Spring 2006 for a Japanese launch. I don’t know why no one’s taken notice, but this is a big deal. This puts it almost side by side with PS3’s launch! I’m guessing it’ll come out around May, which explains why Jim Merrick said in an interview that we should be playing it thoroughly at E3. Looks like it’s coming sooner than we thought.

[by Rollin, Source: Revolution Report]


  1. Yeah, maybe Spring ’06 in Japan, but fall in the states I’m betting.

  2. I think just regarding “2006”, as in the year, as the release date would be the best way to avoid the normal frustrating wait for a new console.

  3. I love living in Toky Japan! I can read/write/speak Japanese and I will be getting the Rev here! (???????????

  4. I can see that timeline. I always thought we would see it sooner rather than later. The big surprise is that we almost have to have more news about the Revolution soon.

    I expect to see first gameplay video to be shown about the time the 360 launches. That would take a lot of wind out of its launch. Nintendo would grab all the media attention. It’s news where as there won’t be anything really unexpected about the 360 launch.

  5. So the March 2006 ad may not be fake…

    Interesting. And now we can hope for more Revolution news soon.

  6. Thats not sooner than we thought. That is when it was expected, actually I think they have even said March in the past, no?

  7. I don’t think they said anything yet.
    You know, MS and Sony said that they’re going to release their consoles worldwide in a very short period of time, like a month or two.
    Why should Nintendo not do it that way ? I just hope they do it that way, because Europe is always the last region to get the good stuff 🙁
    Hmm…gotta start saving some money…

  8. No they’ve never mentioned a target before or after this. North America is still prob Fall as speculated. What i’m thinking now though is that NA may get their Revs around the beginning of Summer, May-June, with Europe following in Summer-Fall.

    It’s def possible, but nothing’s gonna sway Xbots now. Most places have sold out on pre-orders. It’s a bit too hopeful to think one vid can take the wind out of the 360’s sails. And even if Nintendo did steal the attention away, most ppl that r getting a 360 don’t really delve into the internet or magazine media. This is the EA crowd we’re talkin about.

    They may like what the Rev offers, but they’ll buy their 360s anyway. Nothing anyone can do about it.

  9. The closer the revolution comes to a global launch, the more of a real revolution nintendo will have, so I think that they will do the best they can to release it in USA, Japan, and Europe as close as they can.

  10. Yea. I was thinking of past consoles when i sed the above, but DS, SP and Micro all showed up here within weeks of Japan’s release. Europe has been the big problem, i don’t understand why. Although, Nintendo has been showing Europe and America some atypical love lately. I think a global launch is definitely in the cards.

  11. Rollin,
    Very true, but I doubt the initial 360 release will have very many units. Microsoft has pushed a short timeline, and as a result will likely only have a very limited supply by Xmas.

    So, that initial hype from “selling out” will be an important marketing tool. Look at how Nintendo killed the hype in Tokyo. That was supposed to be a big moment for both Sony and MS. Sony ultimately decided not to even have the PS3 playable there.

  12. There are over 2.5 million that r being shipped by January 1st, actually. There won’t be that many here cause they’ve spread out their quantities betwix NA, Europe, and Japan. However most are located in the US. That’s plenty; it’s going to sell just under 2 mil worldwide if i were to guesstimate.

    Agreed, Nintendo did hush MS in Japan, but ur talkin apples and oranges now. If an American Xbox fan were to see that, they might think it’s cool, but not give it a second thought unless they played it.

    I’m a little unclear on what ur getting at with the “initial hype from selling out” line.

  13. No i know that. What i was unclear about was the relation between them selling out and Nintendo killing their hype in the West.

  14. An important part of hype is media coverage. If the media is covering something else, then they loose out on hype.

  15. i cant believe this isnt everywhere on the web already! i just went to google and typed in “nintendo revolution release date” and stuff came but nothing about spring 2006…i just cant believe it

  16. An Infendo exclusive! Ok maybe not.

    Nick, It’s pretty much in the hands of the consumers now. It’s not like ppl are gonna be able to walk into stores and buy one off the shelf. These things are sold already. Who’s gonna cancel their preorder and wait almost a year for the next gen?

    Also, like i sed before, alot (or half?) of the 360 purchasers are mainstream gamers that rn’t into gaming media. They look at pictures and brands to decide what to buy. They don’t exactly go on IGN everyday to keep up with all the news. They glance at a mag, talk to their friends about “what’s hot”, and buy whatever they think they should.

    And the hardcore Xbots are HARDCORE Xbots. They would never leave it, especially for Nintendo. Sure, the more level-headed ones might get a Revolution as well, but none will ditch their 360.

  17. Rolin,

    Not to get too off-topic, but are the pre-orders alone enough to sustain the 360 for an entire generation? Sure, those people aren’t going to cancel their order, but they hardly matter because 1) they would have bought it no matter what (they did in fact) and 2) they are likely the type to buy more than one console.

    If the 360 only sells as much as the Xbox, will that even be enough? What if MS doesn’t pull a profit with this generation. That initial hype will be extremely important to capture the average consumer. If MS doesn’t expand its market share, it’s in big trouble. How long before their investors start complaining.

    Nintendo on the other hand doesn’t really have to expand their market share. They made a profit this generation. If they don’t expand, they become a successful niche console. If they do expand, it’s at the expense of the others. The only real threat to Nintendo is if they lose market share, which would be hard to do.

  18. So that means it will come out in 2019 in UK, right?

  19. 360 is gonna sell more than u think is what i’m trying to tell u. It’s gonna be the cool new item for at least 6 months in 3 diff territories. If it doesn’t sell as many of Xbox did in 4 years, it’s cause they couldn’t ship that much. They will sell whatever they have, and what they don’t will be cause of consumer disinterest, not Revolution.

    MS did all they could so that they do profit from this. It’s in the pricing of the 2 SKUs, it’s in the accessory pricing, and it’s in XBLive payments. It’s gonna sell pretty well, therefore so will the accessories. XBL is a huge part of that whole experience, and that’s gonna be $60 now. They have their bases covered, believe me.

    Profit or no profit doesn’t matter now; arguably it never really did. What matters is who plants their seed the deepest into buyers’ minds. Nintendo isn’t directly competing with the other two anymore, but the hardcore market is something they want a piece of, too.

    Regardless, Nintendo’ll expand their share no matter what, guaranteed.

  20. “what they don’t will be cause of consumer disinterest, not Revolution.”

    Which is more or less what I was trying to say. Whatever media attention Nintendo can manage to steal goes a long way in keeping the average consumer from thinking about the 360. Not really disinterested, but unaware that they are interested.

    The initial release sells don’t matter that much. The PS2 didn’t sell that well initially. The DS had a slow launch too. What really matters is good sells for a duration of time (up to 4 years).

    Profit doesn’t matter as long as they get a bigger slice of the pie, but if they don’t, if their slice stays the same or shrinks, then profit matters a whole lot. Otherwise, shareholders will want to know why they are even in the business.

    MS didn’t have anything to loose last generation. They had no where to go but up. This generation, if they capture more market share, it’s at the expense of Sony, if they don’t it’s a big problem for them.

    XBLive is really a mute point to me. The adoption of it during the current generation was really low. It won’t be a huge money maker, but if it expands its base, MS will be happy. I don’t really think consumers want another recurring entertainment bill.

  21. Media attention will not go a long way because, like i sed, ppl care about what they see and hear. They don’t read up on everything like we do. The 360 booth at Digital Life today, for example. It was the usual video montage and these dudes behind me (20-somethings) were all confused as to what game they were watching at a time, i of course knew every which one from the start. They knew barely enough about the game (judging by their comments) but in their ignorance, they knew they wanted it. This demographic is dead set on 360, man. They just don’t know or care how we see it. I’m not sure if ur talking about the typical 18-25 crowd, but in all i’ve sed thus far it applies to them and kids with their parents.

    You’re right, the handhelds have proved that early sales don’t always indicate long term success. But as shown by the PS2, being the only new kid on the block and having a good buzz gets u real far. The launch titles r really lackluster and it’s still got a great buzz, so when u look at how the titles are only getting MUCH better going into 2006, their chances r very nice. The buzz will continue, 360 will become a household name, and ppl will start forgetting about their PlayStations. This is MS’ plan and it’s a good one.

    To Microsoft, profits really aren’t the goal. They’ve done this in other sectors of their business with products and Xbox isn’t an exception to that. The formula goes that MS is willing to lose money pushing a product through 3 or for incarnations to gain marketshare until it can make a profit from it. I can’t really speak for this myself, but it’s been proven to be true. They can dump as much cash as they need to put it in everyone’s home and they’re succeeding. Now that i know for a fact to be true. Like i sed above, that’s their plan. It’s pretty devious, but smart. Their accessories and services are gonna cover the profits anyway, not the system.

    If they don’t capture any marketshare, it’ll be one of the worst flops i’ve ever seen. But they will. With the head start, brand saturation, and massive developer love, it’s impossible for them not to.

    You may not care about XBL, but it’s the centerpiece of the system. They’re making sure that ppl get to try it by giving everyone a free Silver membership, although it only allows chat. Still, it brings players in and makes em wanna get into the gaming bliss of Live Gold. Something they will need to pay extra for (profits!). I actually want Nintendo to incorporate some of the cool features Live will have, like spectator mode, gamer cards, and worldwide tournaments. Tournaments are prob a given, but spectator mode is something to hope for. Anyhoo, it’s $60 a year for Live, so the consumer will think of it as a nice long term deal.

    I think it’s pretty plain to see.

  22. I guess now would be a good time to go on record as being completely biased. Up until a couple weeks ago, I was completely convinced that the GameCube had won this generation. I’m still fairly sure, just not completely convinced. 😉

  23. Hehe, well that explains it. I had a feeling :D.

    Honestly if all 3 systems were to launch all at once, i promise you Nintendo would get the best reaction. I say this because comparing the XB360 demo today to the Guitar Hero demo, ppl were much more excited with the novelty and interactivity of Guitar Hero. For those who don’t know, Guitar Hero is a PS2 game from the guys at Harmonix that comes with a plastic guitar peripheral. It feels just like ur playing a guitar. So while Microsoft had about 6 or 7 times the crowd, there weren’t any revelations there. A unique game like that has a much better chance to impress. The 360 demos didn’t dazzle anyone. So the earlier Nintendo launches, the better. PS3 or not.

    They better get their asses in the US FAST.

    [*made a typo the 1st time, reposted]

  24. Do you (anyone) speak japanese?

    yeah, I can speak it. I’m planning on studying abroad in Japan next spring.

    I want to buy the revelotion in Japan before returning to the states.

    Tai Shimizu

  25. ?????????????????????????????????


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