There’s no doubt that Nintendo is currently the king of video games, but news this morning about just how important the company has become to the industry as a whole is amazing, to say the least.
How amazing? Well, if the sales preview from analyst group Electronic Entertainment Design and Research (EEDAR) is to be believed, Nintendo literally saved the gaming industry from the “full wrath” of the current recession with more than 50% of all games sold in December for the U.S. market.
Said Jesse Divnich, EEDAR director of analytical services, “In terms of pure dollar and unit growth, Nintendo’s systems are expected to lead the way by an unprecedented amount.”
That amount? A predicted 3.2 million Wii consoles sold in a single month. If these numbers are legit, and match the respected NPD group findings later this month, it would be the highest monthly unit tally for any single console since records began.
The DS, for its part, sold approximately 3 million units. Together, the two Nintendo consoles were responsible for boosting the entire industry by 14% in 2008.
The news, if it pans out, will debunk recent rhetoric that said typical Wii owners would ditch the console in a recession, and that core gamers would save the industry with their insatiable appetite for the latest games and hardware. As we can see with the tanking PS3/PSP numbers, that just isn’t the case. The Xbox 360, for its part, was up 19.05% year-over-year, thanks in part to a solid winter game lineup (which I can personally attest to) and some hefty, well-timed price cuts.
It makes sense, to me at least, that some families may have put off a larger purchase (HDTV or a new car, etc) this year, so they have a little more fun money around for a gift like the Wii.
Do you think that the 360's increase in sales have more to do with the price drop, the family-oriented marketing, or a combination?
I think it's a combination, but not 50-50–more so the price side of things than the marketing.
Many people I've talked to were turned off by those weird empty head ads on TV, while others were turned on by the Arcade's new price point.
Well, now that the Wii has (apparently) broken every record on the books, can third parties please stop treating it like a pile of shit not worthy to even be in the same sentence?
I mean this is major. If it weren't for the Wii and "The next Virtual Boy" DS, the gaming industry would have probably died in a big, masturbatory, self-congratulating HD Movie. Thank our lucky stars for Nintendo actually striving to keep games alive and thriving.
@Jeff: It wouldn't have "died" per say, but it would not have grown in any substantial way. As Nintendo identified way back in 2005 or so, the industry was entering a period of stagnation. There were great games, but they were niche. The same audience was getting the same games and spending the same amount of money. Revenues were ok, but profits were shrinking. There was a huge opportunity for growth, and related to that, a huge opportunity for new games, audiences, and experiences.
But I agree. Third party players now ignore the system at their peril. That goes for piling schlock onto the system as well. To do so would be no better than simply ignoring it.
This doesn't surprise me at at all, and if these numbers are correct then Nintendo made roughly 18 million dollars in just one month from the Wii (that's based on the fact that Nintendo makes about $6 per Wii). Well one thing is for sure, if anyone can pull us out of this recession its Nintendo.
@Jack and @Jeff
Yeah we really need better games on the Wii. Don't get me wrong I like a lot of the games they have and most of them are fun when you have friends over or have a get together, however we need better single player games, even if they have multiplayer support. I wouldn't mind playing halo or the new splinter cell (if they port it to the Wii) as long as the camera isn't controlled by where you are pointing the Wii remote, that's just annoying, however using the Wii Remote to aim and shoot your enemies is definitely something worth looking into and I think people would have fun with that because it brings a realism to the game.
Just a side question for all of you that read this:
Would you like to see a 1st person shooter that CAN use the Wii balance board and the Wii remote? So you can move your character forward by using the Wii balance board to walk in place, and using the wii remote as your gun to aim and fire. Of course other buttons will be used to jump, dodge, roll, or any other action and the ability to use the board would be an option not a requirement.
Also do you think a game like this would make people more into the Wii and also boost sales (not like they really need help with that).
Personally I would like to see it.
On another note, are there any estimates for PS2 sales figures?
(No, I'm not kidding… the price was very Christmas-friendly, and it's got way more good games available CHEAP than any other currently sold system.)
I've always kinda found the new 360 ads quite amusing, 360 gamers having nothing in their heads, where some tiny people have set up home in the void… lol
But yeah, I played my part in this, gave my sister a Wii for Christmas! So it's all good!
hell to the yeah! and ntdoy is back up to 45 bucks. just wait till they report earnings though!
i think we generally see nintendo pulling people into the mkt. i dont think they ditch it in a recession, but i do think much of the blue ocean grows tired of their wii and uses it less and less than traditional gamers. and that the jury will be out on that.
(so it's a ponzi scheme! nintendo looks good only isasmuchas it can get new buyers to replace the old! madoff is running nintendo! so games will increasingly be less able to avail themselves of the install base! especially 3rd parties!!! i'm hyper!!!!!!!)
@ Attilio
I like the idea of using the Wii Board to help control a character, but I can't help but think that fatigue would become a problem. When I play We ski for example, I love using the board to control my skier, but after a half an hour or so, I'm ready to stop because it's get's you tired pretty quickly. Normally when people play a good FPS they play for a couple of hours at a time (if possible), and I'd think, that standing on the board for that long would actually be a turn-off. I suppose you could sit down, and still keep you feet on the board, but even that would get to be a bit much after a while.
I do like the idea, I just don't know how practical it would actually be. Perhaps they could make parts of a game use the board for small bits of time, instead of relying on the board for the whole game.
I would like to see Nintendo continue to push the envelope, and consider new and unique ways of game play. I also hope that it is Nintendo themselves introducing new concepts, because they are the ones who produce the best overall games.
"The news, if it pans out, will debunk recent rhetoric that said typical Wii owners would ditch the console in a recession"
Where do you get your news? Who said this nonsense? The general consensus for the last 20 years has always been that games and movies are essentially recession proof.
@Joshdad
I never thought of it like that. Perhaps some easy in-game control switching would work here. For example when you pause the game you can easily switch control of your character's movements from the balance board to the control stick on the nunchuck, something like that. Its an idea which we probably won't see anytime soon, or at all for that matter.
And I agree, I would like to see Nintendo do that, and I hope that their next system will incorporate similar methods as the Wii but have slightly better hardware so they can compete just a bit with Microsoft and Sony but still be the cheapest system.
@DaveRage
"Who said this nonsense?"
Mostly the same PS3/360 fanboys who claimed that Wii was a short-lived fad… But there have been a number of websites report on how some analysts expect Nintendo could have a hard time maintaining sales with the "fickle casual consumer", where Sony and MS should be safe with their core audience who would rather game than eat.
That said, I agree with you. Sounds like nonsense to me. 🙂
I thought the predictions were the other way around: that the Wii would do better in a recession because of its low price. Gamers, both hardcore and casual, are equally susceptible to this recession, so both would hold back on major purchases.
But the Wii was bound to be the best-seller not just because of its price, but also because of its low demand on high-end graphic displays and surround sound (optional, but not essential).
The predictions were the other way around. Ejamer/Jack – Please link to the articles which predicted the Wii to fail while the 360/PS3 sales would boost.
@DaveRage:
I wrote a sizable post with quotes from 6 different analysts going back to April 2008, all talking about how casual Wii consumers will likely stop buying games even though core gamers will continue. Pachter's remark was something along the lines of "core gamers don't even know they are in a recession, they just keep buying". Unfortunately, the whole thing got lost because of an error when I hit Submit Comment.
My advice? Google the words "wii casual recession". In the first two pages, you'll find plenty of claims from analysts and reputable sources that Wii could/should suffer most from a recession.
Is it logical? Not really… but core fanboys have been latching onto any anti-Wii argument possible for a long time, regardless of logic. This has just been the latest way for them to feel more important, claiming that the (small but dedicated) core market is more reliable and important than casuals, and that they will carry their chosen console through any economic recession. Good luck with that.
Still waiting on those links that affirmatively state the Wii will slump while PS3/360 sales rise this holiday. It would have been much quicker to paste them then writing a comment just as long as the opening post (which is a major faux pas by the way).
@ ejamer- gee, it sounds logical. consumers with less driving interest in a hobby being more price sensitive when their income and net worth drops? woulda neva thought!
i think what you mean to say is that you disagree with them and their premise. not that they're making a logical error. otherwise, quick! write the economist and call them a bunch of xbots! can't wait to see that letter…
dear sir,
you're a nintendo fanboy. you clearly hate the wii and have biased coverage.
-ejamer
(but don't worry, i'll keep my eyes open for them to print your letter.)
ejamer:
wasnt trying to call you a fanboy if that's what you think of my comment. i was mostly joking. except for the part where no one checks recently to see if new consumers + the loyal base drives sales while other casuals slow their buying through disinterest. (i've no idea who's using all those wiifits)
also, go ahead and cite the economist too if you want; they ran that analysis a couple weeks ago.
but you've also linked articles from December which look to the future. If I were to sharpshoot, and I will, Daverage last asked for articles predicting a downturn this holiday. Not 12/17 articles predicting a "medium term impact" ambiguously occurring "when the recession begins to bite."
i wrote a post once about how people confuse the wealth loss from the market downturn with continued loss in productivity, with regards to the income & wealth sensitivity of different consumers, but the point is that the recession is still worsening.
On the other hand, you're right. Lots of people say Nintendo will fail, all the time, this holiday, last, whenever. But that doesn't mean that its illogical to think that less motivated consumers will buy less of a product when they opportunity cost of that purchase increases due to lower expected income/purchasing power.
yup.
@ejamer
I've never heard of either of those guys, and their opinion is anecdotal at best. Pachter is really the only one with any "credibility," and from what I've read, only good things are in store for Nintendo according to him. The general consensus in the industry is that WIi and DS software will continue to sell like crazy, just like it has the past 12 months.
Sure, there may be some commenters here and there that poke fun at the Wii, but those dudes are like 12 years old, why do you let them get you so much? On the other hand, there are some adult Wii owners like myself who gripe about the Wii here and there, but thats just due to a frustration of not having any titles you want to spend your money on. We certainly don't wish the Wii would die, we just want quality games, thats all.
Daverage got owned. He asked for proof and was given proof. And then sadly, attempted to dodge it by attacking the sources of the quotes rather than take it like a man. @daverage, just because you're not familiar with those analysts doesn't mean the rest of us aren't. It's ironic that you use the fact that you've never heard of these guys as an excuse while simultaneously calling their opinions anecdotal. Get it? The fact that you've never heard of them, IS anecdotal.
@ejamer,
You're totally right. Many of the industry suits were theorizing that game spending decreases due to economic forces would hit the Wii the hardest, making comments like "the hardcore will keep buying games regardless". The point is, they were wrong. The hardcore are the ones scaling back while the average gamers that are buying Wiis only seem to be multiplying.
Even so; I wouldn't put much stock in anaylists making predictions on numbers for this month because back in November; I remembered agreeing with Michael Pacther on Wii's hardware numbers (since they matched with my predictions more or less) and the final NPD Fun numbers showed Wii's numbers to be way higher than even what I had (VGChartz.com had to adjust their numbers higher as a result too since they lowballed the numbers as well). I would not be shocked if this happens again and we might even see Wii reach the history making four million unit mark.
I currently have Wii at 3.16 million; DS at 3.13 million, PSP at 920,000; PS3 at 740,000 and XBOX 360 at 1.61 million. Other than Wii; everything is higher than EEDAR.
January 29th is also going to be an interesting date. I have heard from sources (Nikkei) that Sony is going to lose $1.12 billion for the quarter. I also know Nintendo is planning to release finances for the third quarter which should be interesting to see if the currency rates have affected Nintendo's expectations in the profits area. I don't think sales are going to be a problem .
To DaveRage: I didn't know about Michael Pachter until I started reading Sean Malstrom's "A Fool's Paradise" which was about 18 months ago. It still doesn't change reality on his performance or the performance of the other soothsayers either. It's not a pretty sight.
CiscoTheDragon –
Do you even know what "owned" means? Probably not. Considering the only articles I was provided were from two analysts nobody's even heard of, who's company websites look worse than GoNintendo, I hardly called that "owned". Additionally, the articles were written in December, long after Black Friday, and they were discussing 2009. Jacks articles was in regards to all of the analysts "empty rhetoric" about this holiday season.
I
"Do you even know what “owned†means?"
Owned is a relative term. In this case, owned is someone who's proven blatantly wrong who then tries to redefine the argument and insult the evidence against him (see your comment above). eJamer owned you because he was in control. He had sources and verifiable statements. All you had was insults and sidestepping.
Sources quoted by Gamesindustry.biz and techradar are completely legitimate. Jack mentions "recent rhetoric" and those comments easily fall under that definition.
"considering the only articles I was provided were from two analysts nobody's even heard of"
And again, just because you're ignorant of these sources doesn't mean the rest of us are. In fact, we are not. Assuming we all share your lack of knowledge is a pretty silly point of debate.
Ever heard of Kotaku? How about the Associated Press? Fox News? USAToday? Billy Pidgeon at IDC? Michael Pachter? They all either covered this or commented on it to the effect that Jack mentioned, "core gamers will save the industry".
From Luke Plunkett at Kotaku: "And no matter how poor your job prospects are, no matter how much your pay is cut, no matter how tough things may get otherwise, you'll always find the time – and more importantly the money – to play games."
""As long as hard-core gamers have a job, they will continue to buy games," said IDC video games analyst Billy Pidgeon."
"Michael Pachter, an analyst with Wedbush Morgan, estimates that core gamers buy roughly half of all video games."
"company websites look worse than GoNintendo"
As to your laughable complaint that the websites don't look pretty enough, a site like screendigest isn't going to be full of flash and other nonsense, they are an analyst site and they provide lots of information to industry professionals, not angry raging gamers. They don't need to be glitzy to be relevant. Its that kind of attitude that has most likely caused you to have such incorrect beliefs. If I were as wrong as you and forced to sidestep the issues the way do, I'd probably put "rage" in my tag as well. I'm sure it gets quite frustrating.
hahahaha- what are you guys even arguing about anymore?
DOOD! you totally GOT PWNED on that Nintendo Blog!
personally, i was hoping to see links to the articles that predicted a tough holiday season in 08 for game sales. so if you've got those, post away! get your debunk on!
Yes, please post to the "08 Wii Sales Will Suck this Holiday" articles. Everything up and to this point has either been anecdotal or pertaining to the future.
For the 15 of you who care; the term owned is a less offensive word meaning: "You're my bitch!" which is pretty sexist if you ask me. It's like the word noob which is another word created from the video game community for rookie.
Yes, please post the articles that no one ever claimed existed. Bloody brilliant all around.
@deepthought,
"DOOD! you totally GOT PWNED on that Nintendo Blog!"
Hey, you gotta admit, if there was ever a place it would be embarrassing to get your ass handed to you, its a Nintendo blog. But, nevertheless, thats what often ends up happening when people try to argue a point without any real information. Its all in good fun though, we're all still gamers. 🙂
@ used
lol. man! imagine if that person ventured on, like, a political blog! TRAINWRECK!
although, regarding you other point… i havent really read who claimed what and when; i kinda skim. i just kinda went with the idea that jack was talking about debunking articles. but i guess he was debunking "rhetoric". most of the articles i've read all talk about the future of the recession, and i havent even seen anyone say nintendo was going to fail during the holiday. so i guess i'm still lost on what was actually debunked here.
i'm all for saying the analysts are offbase, though my analysis differs from yours as to the true mkt motivation. but it kinda sounds like jack ran up the victory flag a bit soon here.
Per the title of the article:
"Analyst: Recession-proof Nintendo saved Christmas with more than 50% of sales"
I'm still waiting for the article filled with empty rhetoric that stated Nintendo would rot this xmas. Until then, consider yourself owned Cisco.
If you want, I'm sure I can find plenty of articles that predicted Nintendo would continue to swim in money this past holiday =)
They say "reading is fundemental". Now I understand what they meant.
No one said "Nintendo would rot this xmas", so calling for an article that states that is asinine.
What the linked articles DO say and what the original infendo post refers to, is that there was a lot of industry analysis that discounted the possibility that even in a recession, the market driving the Wii would thrive. The empty rhetoric was based on several assumptions:
1. Casual gamers are the main gamers buying the Wii.
2. Casual gamer dollars will dry up in the face of a recession.
3. Hardcore gamers will buy games regardless of the economic situation.
The conclusion to be drawn from this rhetoric is that any recessionary forces that the game industry faces, will have to be weathered by the hardcore, because the casuals will be less likely to use discretionary income for a "luxury" in a down economy.
As jack mentions, so far as we can tell, these conclusions haven't been supported by the facts.
Any thinking individual can see that from the quotes, and anyone active in the game industry would be familiar with these statements already as they've been covered ad nauseum by nearly every gaming site on the planet.
Now, deepthought makes a good point. Perhaps it's too early to tell. Perhaps, what the pundits are saying will eventually come to pass. Perhaps, as the recession continues, casual gaming dollars will dry up. Perhaps, we'll start to see Nintendos sales as a percentage of total gaming revenue shrink. Perhaps. But right now, it's just the opposite.
It's the HD consoles who's portion is shrinking while the Wii is growing. Now that the economic numbers are in, we see we've been in a recession for a year, or more. Yet, in that same year, Wii market share has grown from 42 percent to 50 percent. Based on that, it doesn't look like a recession will be as damaging to the casual game buying audience as analysts would have us believe.
I honestly didn't think it was so complicated, but perhaps this situation is hurtful to some people. I can't imagine why, but I'll leave that to others to figure out.
@ used
the why is because i havent seen anything debunked. just articles about tomorrow and "evidence" from yesterday.
no one's hurt, we're just bored and hounding this forum all day and night till someone points specifically to something debunked.
…back to studying…blahhhhhhhhhh my last exam tomorrow morn….. can't concentrate but must…. keep… working….
oh! the new scrubs epsiode is up on youtube!
"No one said “Nintendo would rot this xmasâ€, so calling for an article that states that is asinine."
The OP implies the silly analysts said that.
@deepthought,
"why is because i havent seen anything debunked.'
Does that mean that you agree the hardcore gamers are saving the industry in a time of recession? Because that's not what CURRENT sales numbers show. You know, AT ALL. I mean what do you expect, we're running the latest numbers. The only numbers we EVER have are yesterdays numbers. You dig?
@rage,
"The OP implies the silly analysts said that."
Not at all. Read the links man. No really, give it a shot. Try reading, please, once? They all say the same thing. Casuals gaming expenditures will decline a recessionary environement. (note: we're in a recession) and the hardcores will maintain (note: they're not)