From IDC (very respectable analyst firm based in my backyard):
IDC predicts that the Wii will outship and outsell the Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 in 2007 and 2008, as Nintendo’s rivals battle over the core consumer. IDC gaming program manager Billy Pidgeon said that Nintendo’s strategy to reach out to the non-core gaming market will pay off. “With the Wii, Nintendo is abdicating the specification war, leaving Sony and Microsoft to slug it out between themselves for the hardcore market,” he said in a statement. “We believe concerted efforts to broaden the appeal of videogames beyond the traditional enthusiast/hardcore base will deepen the industry’s penetration. This is good news for an industry that seemed to be receding last year due to over-saturation of the core base.” Like other analysts, IDC believes that the current generation of consoles will not see one single dominating platform, as the PS2 was in the last generation. The firm said that it expects hardware shipments of the Wii to capture “a little more than a third of the worldwide market by 2008, rising slightly above Sony’s PS3 and Microsoft’s Xbox 360.”
First they ignore you. Then they laugh at you. Then they fight you. Then you win.